Photograph by Anadolu / Getty Images
words by miranda green
When the United States first sent rockets to Iran, I was hesitant to write about the climate connections.
The military exercise echoed a similar moment we saw just eight weeks earlier, when the U.S. military removed Venezuela’s sitting authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro. Like the Venezuelan military maneuver, the attacks on Iran came unannounced, happened during early Saturday hours, and were done with the express purpose of removing the country’s leadership. Like Venezuela, the U.S. has had no formal diplomatic ties with Iran for quite some time. So long, in fact, that Iran’s embassy in D.C. is a notorious ghost building. And like Venezuela, Iran’s biggest money maker is its oil supply.
But in the moments following the joint attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran last month, Trump’s reasoning for the conflict was notably murky. In a pre-taped, 8-minute video he shared online, Trump pointed to Iran’s nuclear weapons development as the main impetus to U.S. action. He ended by telling the Iranian people to rise up and “take over your government,” insinuating that global democracy was another potential motive. Unlike his comments after Venezuela, he didn’t once mention the country’s main export: black gold.
And there was certainly reason to believe Trump. Iran does have some nuclear capabilities, and the Trump administration has long warned about the country’s growing ability to make warheads. Last June, the U.S. Air Force and Navy struck three Iranian nuclear facilities with B-2 bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles in an effort called Operation Midnight Hammer. Some of the same sites were struck again in the past week. Civically, Iran has been rocked by protests against its government for months. While coverage has been limited due to Iran’s internet blackout—just 1% of the country is estimated to have access— and strict control over news there, senior White House officials in January told TIME that more than 30,000 people were killed during protests on January 8 and 9 alone.
But as Trump’s messaging grows more revealing, it’s increasingly clear that the Iran excursion, war, or whatever you choose to call it, was always at least in some part about fossil fuels.
Iran, like Venezuela, is one of the 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, an international alliance that coordinates petroleum policies and manages oil production levels. Iran is the ninth-largest global oil producer—responsible for approximately 4.5% of the world’s oil production —pumping roughly 3 million barrels of oil per day. In contrast, the U.S. is the top oil producer with 13.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, as well as the top oil consumer.
But Iran’s relationship with the U.S. has long been strained, and standing sanctions against the country mean there haven’t been American imports of Iranian oil for some time. If that relationship changes going forward, that oil access could potentially change.
Asked about Iran’s oil on Monday, Trump refrained from giving NBC News a straight answer. Instead, he nodded to Venezuela, saying. “You look at Venezuela … People have thought about it, but it’s too soon to talk about that.” Trump announced during last month’s State of the Union address that the U.S. had gotten roughly 80,000 barrels of oil from Venezuela since invading the country.
Another consideration is whether Iran’s oil production infrastructure will remain intact following the current military altercation. On Saturday, Israel struck at least 30 of Iran’s oil depots, leading to toxic black rain and thick, billowing smoke around Tehran. “Something like a black monster has swallowed the sky over Tehran,” one local told TIME of the experience. The environmental and health effects of the strikes will likely be felt for decades.
Photos of the attacks on Iran were reminiscent of iconic images from Operation Desert Storm, a 1991 U.S. military battle in Kuwait, when Iraqi troops set ablaze more than 600 Kuwaiti oil fields that then burned for months. Similar images peppered coverage of the Iraq War in the early 2000s.
Politically, there are concerns that strikes on Iran will further increase oil prices while turning Iranians against the U.S. Rebuilding oil depots would also be costly and time-consuming for anyone looking to use them.
“The president doesn’t like the attack,” a Trump adviser told Axios of Israel’s Saturday bombings. “He wants to save the oil. He doesn’t want to burn it. And it reminds people of higher gas prices.”
At a press conference on Monday, Trump said the U.S. was refraining from hitting the country’s electricity production, telling reporters at Mar-a-Lago: “We’re not looking to do that if we don’t have to. But they’re the kind of things that are very easy to hit, but very devastating if they are hit. We are waiting to see what happens before we hit them. We could take them all out in one day.”
He didn’t mention what the U.S. hopes are for Iran’s oil assets and if U.S. relationships with that source would change.
The question of what ultimately happens to Iran’s oil is irrelevant to what’s already happening to oil prices globally. It’s being called the biggest oil supply disruption in history.
Oil prices on Monday surged to more than $115 a barrel: the highest prices have been since 2022, following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. While they have since settled, the volatility of the market reveals major fears that the war with Iran could continue long-term.
Oil prices are rising because Iran is located near a strategic shipping route where about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows. Many oil-rich countries use the route, including countries the U.S. imports from. The military attacks have all but stopped tankers from moving through that strait. As a result, gas prices across the U.S. are up 17% since the attacks on Iran began and are expected to continue to increase before moderating.
Asked about the oil prices by phone Monday, Trump told The New York Post that “I have a plan for everything. You’ll be very happy,” but did not elaborate. White House officials have promised that “this is a short-term change in oil prices, which will drop dramatically once the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are achieved.” Trump also dismissed concerns at the conference about rising oil prices, saying other countries are more impacted. “It doesn’t really affect us,” he claimed.
But Saudi Aramco, the world’s top oil exporter, warned of “catastrophic consequences” should the war in the Middle East continue. A statement posted by the company’s CEO read: “While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced.”
One option the Trump administration was reportedly considering to ease the price at the pump is to get oil and gas from Russia. The move would be a major about-face, since America and its allies have heavily sanctioned Russian oil since 2022, even going so far as placing an additional 25% tariff on India last August for importing Russian oil. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a 30-day waiver on the tariff placed on Russian oil while considering lifting other sanctions. The sanctions had previously toppled Russia’s oil revenue, tanking it from 45% of its federal budget in 2021 to about 20% in 2025. The Iran war is reportedly giving Russia new economic opportunities.
More than 1,000 civilians have been killed since the war began two weeks ago, according to estimates from the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, and Trump has yet to give a firm endpoint. Previously, he said he would like to help pick a new Iranian leader who would work with the U.S. similarly to how Venezuela’s new leadership has done. Instead, the son of Iran’s slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has taken over as leader of the country, a hardliner whose appointment Trump called a “mistake” and suggested might not last.
At Monday’s press conference, Trump said the U.S. would not “relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.” The problem is, it’s not entirely clear what the White House’s objectives are and when they could realistically be achieved. That uncertainty has sent stock prices falling. On Monday, he reasserted that the attack was a military strategy based on ending Iran’s nuclear program and said he expected the war to end “very soon.”
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The War With Iran Is Already About Energy
